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ART Review Outcomes (July 1, 2025 – October 31, 2025)

Understanding the Data

As you can see from the breakdown below, the official figures include cases where the ART application was withdrawn by the applicant (Withdrawn), as well as cases where the applicant failed to attend their hearing (Dismissals—which results in the original refusal decision being upheld).

To get a clearer picture, let's look at the success rate when we:

1. Exclude Withdrawn cases

2. Exclude Dismissals (non-attendance)

This gives us the success rate based solely on cases where an actual review took place and both sides were evaluated.

• Set Aside (Overturned): 1,510 cases

• Affirmed (Upheld): 682 cases

  • Breakdown: Dismissals (Non-attendance): 257 cases / Withdrawn: 1,078 cases

Calculated Success Rate:

$\text{Set Aside } (1,510) \div \text{Actual Reviews } (1,510 + 425 = 1,935) = \mathbf{78.04\%}$

This shows that for Student Visa refusals that were actually reviewed by the tribunal, nearly 80% were determined that the original refusal decision should be changed.

Current Climate for Student Visas

While student visa refusal rates spiked rapidly between June and August 2025, approval rates for Japanese applicants showed a strong recovery between September and late October:

• Offshore Applications (from outside Australia): 96.4% approved

• Onshore Applications (from within Australia): 91.8% approved

• Overall Approval Rate for Japanese Applicants: 94.45%

  (Up significantly from 80.85% during July and August)

Currently, visa refusal rates for Japanese nationals have decreased and stabilized.

However, because overall statistics include applicants with lengthy prior stays in Australia, individual visa risk still heavily depends on factors such as:

• Your total stay history in Australia

• Your previous visa background

• Your intended course and educational provider

Instead of being overly pessimistic, the key is to carefully prepare your application with a strong strategy in place.

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